Estimate for China: 25 µg/m³ PM2.5 limit would have averted 4.3 times more deaths than 35 in 2024
Researchers modeled 2024 mortality: full compliance with China's revised limit would raise progress toward the WHO halving target from 66.2% to 83.4%.
Researchers from Peking University Health Science Center and the Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning estimated how much China's tightened PM₂.₅ standard would reduce deaths. The study was published online on 23 October 2026 in Environmental Science and Ecotechnology. According to the authors, full compliance with 25 µg m⁻³ in 2024 would avert 4.3 times as many deaths as full compliance with the former 35 µg m⁻³ limit doi.org
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In 2026 China revised its National Ambient Air Quality Standards (GB 3095-2026), lowering the annual PM₂.₅ limit from 35 to 25 µg m⁻³ through phased implementation, with an interim 30 µg m⁻³ stage from 2026 to 2030. Population-weighted exposure fell from 62.8 to 29.7 µg m⁻³ between 2013 and 2024. The World Health Organization has called on countries to halve air-pollution-related mortality by 2040 doi.org
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Method and deaths averted
The team combined high-resolution PM₂.₅ data, gridded population estimates and disease-specific exposure–response functions in a comparative risk assessment. The analysis covered mainland China from 2013 to 2024 and seven disease outcomes from the Global Burden of Disease 2023 risk set doi.org
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For 2024, full compliance with 25 µg m⁻³ would have averted an estimated 233,668 premature deaths (95% uncertainty interval 198,354–270,734), a 16.1% reduction from observed levels. Under the 35 µg m⁻³ limit the figure is 53,985 deaths (45,992–62,021). The share of the population above the threshold would rise from 33% to 65% under the stricter limit. The PM₂.₅-attributable fraction of mortality fell from 32.5% in 2015 to 22.6% in 2024 doi.org
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PM₂.₅-specific progress toward the WHO halving target would be 66.2%, 72.6% and 83.4% under full compliance with 35, 30 and 25 µg m⁻³, respectively doi.org
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Differences between diseases
Under the 25 µg m⁻³ scenario, mortality would fall by 22.8% for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 18.4% for stroke, 18.4% for lung cancer, 18.0% for lower respiratory infections and 16.0% for ischemic heart disease. For dementia the reduction is 1.4% and for type 2 diabetes 1.1%; the authors note that the dementia estimate requires caution because the evidence is weaker doi.org
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Only chronic obstructive pulmonary disease would exceed the 50% halving benchmark, while dementia and type 2 diabetes would remain far behind. A sensitivity analysis with the Global Exposure Mortality Model for non-communicable diseases and lower respiratory infections showed a similar pattern, with 3.9 times more deaths averted under 25 than under 35 µg m⁻³ doi.org
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