GBD study: cervical cancer deaths forecast to rise 39.3% by 2050 from 2024 levels
Global Burden of Disease estimates for 204 countries: 887,000 new cases and 369,000 deaths in 2023. Rates are forecast to fall, while absolute numbers rise.
The Global Burden of Disease study estimated cervical cancer incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) across 204 countries and territories for 1990–2023 and produced forecasts to 2050. The results were published in Nature Medicine. For 2023 the authors estimate 887,000 new cases (95% uncertainty interval 682,000–1,170,000), 369,000 deaths (292,000–475,000) and 13.3 million DALYs (10.1–17.4) worldwide doi.org
Nature Medicinedoi.orgOpen source ↗.
The authors point out that cervical cancer is highly preventable, yet remains one of the most common malignancies among women worldwide. According to the analysis, all cervical cancer DALYs were attributable to human papillomavirus infection, and tobacco use contributed 5.9% (3.2–9.3) globally doi.org
Nature Medicinedoi.orgOpen source ↗.
Differences between income groups and change since 1990
Age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were more than four and seven times higher, respectively, in low-income countries than in high-income countries doi.org
Nature Medicinedoi.orgOpen source ↗.
From 1990 to 2023 the global ASIR was largely stable, with a change of −0.4% (−26.6 to 34.7). The global ASMR changed by −17.5% (−36.2 to 13.4) over the same period doi.org
Nature Medicinedoi.orgOpen source ↗. Both uncertainty intervals include zero.
Forecast to 2050
The forecast changes are given relative to 2024. By 2050 the global ASIR is forecast to change by −12.5% (−25.7 to 3.5) and the ASMR by −9.0% (−21.5 to 6.6) doi.org
Nature Medicinedoi.orgOpen source ↗. Absolute numbers, however, are forecast to rise: cases by 20.2% (4.6–38.5) and deaths by 39.3% (23.6–57.3)
doi.org
Nature Medicinedoi.orgOpen source ↗.
ASIR and ASMR are forecast to remain highest in low-income countries doi.org
Nature Medicinedoi.orgOpen source ↗. The authors conclude that intensified action is needed to accelerate progress. The forecast figures are model estimates with wide uncertainty intervals, and the intervals for the changes in both rates also include zero.
