Gulf of Panama upwelling failed in 2025 for the first time in 40 years of records
Cool, nutrient-rich water did not rise in the January–April season; the authors link it to weaker Panama wind jets. Fisheries and corals may be affected.
The seasonal upwelling in the Gulf of Panama failed in 2025, researchers report in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. For at least 40 years the system has delivered cool, nutrient-rich water every January–April, driven by northerly trade winds pnas.org
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciencespnas.orgOpen source ↗. This normally highly predictable phenomenon did not occur in 2025.
The work involved researchers from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute and the Max Planck Institute, according to the Futura Sciences account of the study.
What the data show
According to the authors, the data suggest the cause was a reduction in the frequency, duration and strength of the Panama wind jet. They say this may be related to the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during the 2024–2025 La Niña, though the mechanisms remain unclear.
The Futura Sciences account adds that satellites showed no chlorophyll signal over the gulf. It also reports that instruments aboard the research vessel S/Y Eugen Seibold recorded no vertical motion in the water column. Co-author Hanno A. Slagter is quoted as saying that without the research cruise nobody would have known the upwelling had stopped.
Possible consequences for fisheries and corals
The authors state that the consequences are likely significant pnas.org
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciencespnas.orgOpen source ↗. They name decreases in fisheries productivity and exacerbated thermal stress on corals, which typically benefit from the cooling that upwelling provides.
The study also points to a gap in monitoring. Wind-driven tropical upwelling systems remain poorly monitored and studied, despite their importance to ecology and coastal economies. The authors write that the event underscores how climate disruption can threaten such systems.
The paper does not establish the mechanism behind the weaker wind jet. The link to the ITCZ position during La Niña is presented as a possibility, and the authors note that the mechanisms remain unclear.
