Model of 10,883 export sites finds cheapest hydrogen-carrier routes to five major importers
A modeling study calculated 2030 transport costs of seven synthetic energy carriers from 10,883 sites. Pipeline retrofit options and port access decide which exporters compete.
A study in Nature Communications presents a spatially resolved model of global trade in synthetic energy carriers. It covers 10,883 potential production locations and seven scenarios. The authors calculated the cheapest routes and delivery costs to Germany, Japan, China, India and the United States for the target year 2030 nature.com
Nature Communicationsnature.comOpen source ↗. This is a calculation, not a field trial or a pilot project.
Model and scope
The authors built a heuristic based on a mixed-integer optimization model. It combines hydrogen production costs with ports, pipelines and shipping routes, as well as synthesis, cracking and reformation processes. The accompanying dataset includes global shipping and pipeline infrastructure and high-resolution costs of hydrogen production and of electricity from solar PV and onshore wind.
Transport and conversion costs and boil-off were estimated for seven carriers: hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, synthetic natural gas, Fischer-Tropsch crude, methylcyclohexane (MCH) and dibenzyltoluene (DBT). Four transport means were considered: ship, truck, and existing and newly built pipelines. The study takes a what-if view: it identifies infrastructure retrofit options and investment needs instead of assessing only infrastructure that is already available. The five importers were chosen as major prospective buyers of renewable hydrogen products according to the Hydrogen Council.
Pipelines, ports and carrier choice
According to the authors, exporters connected to the importer through retrofit-ready pipelines remain competitive despite only moderate renewable potentials. Europe, North Africa and Central Asia stay competitive even with higher hydrogen production costs nature.com
Nature Communicationsnature.comOpen source ↗. Retrofitting existing natural gas pipelines for hydrogen substantially lowers import costs.
For remote exporters, competitiveness depends on port availability and on coastal access through pipeline networks. Regions with high renewable potential are attractive only if pipelines or ports are available; otherwise inland transport costs rise significantly.
The preferred carrier depends on distance and infrastructure. Gaseous hydrogen dominates short pipeline routes, and ammonia is preferred for maritime trade. Methanol and methane appear in long multimodal chains that involve road and sea transport. Liquid organic hydrogen carriers need low-cost heat to be competitive. Accounting for the market values of conventional counterparts boosts ammonia and methanol trade. The paper also notes that liquid hydrogen carrier ships are not expected to become widely available before the 2030s.
