Compound wind drought and heatwave events projected to rise 100–750% by 2100 in 27 CMIP6 models
Models project global frequency of low-wind, high-temperature events up 100–750% by 2100, with duration up 80–300%, which matters for power system planning.
Researchers analysed compound wind drought and heatwave (WDHW) events, defined as low wind speeds occurring together with high temperatures, over global land areas. The study, published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, used daily output from 27 downscaled CMIP6 climate models at a resolution of about 25 km pnas.org
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciencespnas.orgOpen source ↗.
Across scenarios from low to high CO2, the authors project global event frequency to increase by 100 to 750% by 2100. Event duration is projected to lengthen by 80 to 300%.
According to the analysis, the intensification is mainly driven by thermodynamic warming and widespread wind stilling. In some regions it is further amplified by stronger climate variability and by tighter wind–temperature coupling associated with poleward jet streams.
The authors also applied an emergent-constraint framework that links observed historical trends to future projections. It reduced intermodel variance by 10 to 40% at both global and regional scales pnas.org
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciencespnas.orgOpen source ↗. The authors note direct implications for climate-impact assessment and energy-system planning.
