# Siberia 2021 fires: radiative power nearly 9 times average, soil dryness linked to heat

- Published: 2026-11-10 13:56 UTC
- Section: Planet › Climate
- Tags: Siberian wildfires 2021, fire radiative power, soil moisture feedback, boreal forest fires, analog method, satellite observations 2004–2024, Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Alexander Chernokulsky
- URL: https://realtech.media/news/rt-e6ff170e156ff1f234becd9b_siberia_2021_fires/

**Satellite data for 2004–2024 show summer 2021 was among Siberia's worst fire seasons; the authors link extreme heat to a soil moisture feedback, not circulation alone.**

![Siberia 2021 fires: radiative power nearly 9 times average, soil dryness linked to heat](https://realtech.media/media/2026/11/4cb82707688ae031.jpg)
*Chic Bee, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0*

Summer 2021 was one of the most severe wildfire seasons in Siberia over the satellite record from 2004 to 2024, according to a study reported by science.mail.ru [1]. In Central and Eastern Siberia, fire radiative power (FRP), which reflects burning intensity, exceeded the average almost 9 times, not counting 2021 itself [1]. The mean area of individual fires was about 3.3 times larger than usual, and burning lasted almost twice as long [1].

## Heat, drought and dry soil

An international team, including Alexander Chernokulsky, deputy director of the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS, analysed the role of climate factors and atmospheric circulation [1]. According to the press service of the Russian Ministry of Science and Higher Education, the worst-hit regions had anomalously high temperature, about 1.3 °C above the 2004–2024 mean, along with a precipitation deficit and a pronounced shortage of soil moisture [1].

Dry ground may look like a mere consequence of hot weather, but the surface and the atmosphere interact. With sufficient moisture, much of the incoming energy goes into evaporation. As the soil dries, evaporation is limited and a larger share of energy heats the surface and near-surface air. This starts a positive feedback: less moisture reduces evaporation, which increases heating and dries the soil further.

## Analog method and fire hazard

To estimate the contribution of different factors, the authors used the analog method. For the eight days with the highest fire intensity, large-scale circulation anomalies explained about 34.7% of regional temperature variation, while soil moisture anomalies explained about 64.3% [1]. The authors conclude that extreme heat was tied not only to atmospheric processes but also to the state of the land surface.

As heat and drought intensified, fires grew nonlinearly. The 2004–2024 analysis revealed a strengthening interaction between soil moisture and the atmosphere, which in warm, dry conditions raises the fire hazard of Siberia's boreal forests [1]. According to the authors, understanding these feedbacks is important for assessing risks at high latitudes.

## Sources

1. [science.mail.ru](https://science.mail.ru/news/60240-pochemu-pozhary-v-sibiri-v-2021-godu-polyhali-v-9-raz-silnee-obychnogo)

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Source: RealTech, realtech.media — https://realtech.media/news/rt-e6ff170e156ff1f234becd9b_siberia_2021_fires/