# Imperial and LSHTM estimate 50,391 heat-related excess deaths in 854 European cities in summer 2026

- Published: 2026-11-05 00:52 UTC
- Section: Planet › Climate
- Tags: heat-related deaths Europe 2026, excess mortality heatwave, climate attribution study, 854 European cities, human-caused climate change, Imperial College London, temperature–mortality model, counterfactual temperature scenario
- URL: https://realtech.media/news/rt-e3c36eb06545760033d80843_imperial_and_lshtm/

**A modelling study covering 854 cities in 30 countries attributes about 65% of estimated summer heat-related excess deaths to human-caused climate warming.**

![Imperial and LSHTM estimate 50,391 heat-related excess deaths in 854 European cities in summer 2026](https://sgzwpqqelzmajkcubgkl.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/rt-media/2026/11/c5d2795e45ba068a.jpg)
*Le Scienze*

A joint analysis by Imperial College London and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine estimated 50,391 heat-related excess deaths in 854 European urban areas between June and August 2026, newcivilengineer.com reports [1]. About 32,619 of them, around 65%, are attributed to human-caused climate warming [1]. The study has been accepted for publication in the journal Nature Health.

The cities are located in 30 countries: the EU-27, the UK, Switzerland and Norway. Together they had about 173M residents in 2026. For the last 10 days of May, the authors modelled an additional 1,508 deaths [1].

## Age and regional distribution of heat deaths

People aged 85 and over accounted for an estimated 22,502 heat-related excess deaths [1]. The analysis also found hundreds of deaths among younger adults.

Southern Europe recorded the highest age-standardised excess mortality rates. Rates were lowest in northern Europe, though substantially higher than in past years. Malta, Italy, Hungary and Croatia had particularly high standardised rates. Country-by-country results differ both in absolute numbers and in the share attributable to human-caused warming.

Summer 2026 was one of the hottest on record in Europe, with monthly and daily temperature records repeatedly broken from May through August.

## Attribution method and limitations

The researchers combined climate-attribution methods with temperature–mortality models. Observational reanalysis and climate-model synthesis were used to estimate the local warming component linked to human activity. That component was then subtracted to build a counterfactual temperature series for a world without anthropogenic warming [1].

Both series were combined with city- and age-specific exposure–response functions drawn from historical mortality and temperature data. This gave estimates of heat-related excess deaths under factual and counterfactual scenarios.

The authors listed several limitations. The exposure–response relationships rely on data up to 2019 and do not reflect possible changes in vulnerability or adaptation since then. The model assumes vulnerability to heat is constant across the season and uses daily mean temperature as the key exposure metric. According to the authors, this may underestimate impacts when extreme night-time temperatures, humidity and sudden early-season heatwaves contribute to mortality.

The analysis covers urban populations only, about 40% of the population of the 30 countries, so total heat mortality in Europe is likely higher, the report noted [1].

## Sources

1. [newcivilengineer.com](https://www.newcivilengineer.com/latest/summer-heatwaves-linked-with-more-than-50000-excess-deaths-across-european-cities-26-10-2026/)
2. [Le Scienze](https://www.lescienze.it/ambiente-e-clima/2026/10/30/news/ondate_calore_questa_estate_europa_causato_oltre_50000_decessi-23028006)

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Source: RealTech, realtech.media — https://realtech.media/news/rt-e3c36eb06545760033d80843_imperial_and_lshtm/