# Kilimanjaro air temperature 2004–2024: daytime warming near summit, cooling at 3000–3500 m

- Published: 2026-11-05 15:39 UTC
- Section: Planet › Climate
- Tags: Kilimanjaro temperature trends, elevation-dependent warming, tropical mountain climate, MODIS land-surface temperature, clear-sky air temperature, mountain vegetation change, University of Portsmouth, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
- URL: https://realtech.media/news/rt-dbaa804ed28545dac06aa9c0_kilimanjaro_air_temperature/

**University of Portsmouth researchers combined station records with MODIS data on Kilimanjaro. Under clear skies, the summit warmed by day while 3000–3500 m cooled.**

![Kilimanjaro air temperature 2004–2024: daytime warming near summit, cooling at 3000–3500 m](https://sgzwpqqelzmajkcubgkl.supabase.co/storage/v1/object/public/rt-media/2026/11/9bf98e8319d0b6a2.webp)
*scinexx*

Researchers from the University of Portsmouth and the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology report elevation-dependent warming on Mount Kilimanjaro under clear-sky conditions. The study, led by Yaping Mo with Nick Pepin, Harold Lovell and Yongming Xu, was published on nature.com in October 2026 in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science [1]. The authors combined a long-term in situ air temperature transect with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land-surface temperature, surface and topographic datasets [1]. They then mapped clear-sky air temperature at four MODIS overpasses at 1 km resolution for 2004–2024 [1].

Temperature trends along elevation gradients remain poorly understood in the tropics, because long-term high-elevation air temperature observations are sparse [1]. Satellites measure land-surface temperature rather than air temperature, which is why the authors paired them with ground records.

## Model accuracy and diurnal contrasts

The statistical models showed strong predictive performance. RMSE was 1.76 °C for the daytime model and 1.36 °C for the nighttime model, and R2 was 0.94 and 0.95 respectively [1]. The modelled air temperature differs markedly between day and night [1].

Daytime air temperature shows strong spatial variability, affected by radiation and surface properties. Nighttime air temperature varies more gradually with elevation [1].

## Trends by elevation

Trend analysis for 2004–2019 identified elevation-dependent warming under clear-sky conditions [1]. Daytime trends become positive near the summit, at +0.05 to +0.10 °C/decade. The strongest cooling occurs at 3000–3500 m, at −0.13 to −0.14 °C/decade, coinciding with vegetation and land-cover change [1].

At night, weak warming dominates most elevations, at +0.04 to +0.15 °C/decade, while the summit remains near-neutral [1].

The authors conclude that the pattern on Kilimanjaro is shaped not only by elevation-dependent climate responses, but also by vegetation and land-cover changes that modify local surface-atmosphere coupling [1]. Coincidence in time does not by itself show that vegetation caused the trends, and other influences on local temperature remain possible. The maps describe clear-sky conditions at fixed satellite overpass times and a single tropical mountain, so they do not extend directly to all weather conditions or to other mountain ranges.

## Sources

1. [nature.com](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-026-01560-z)
2. [scinexx](https://www.scinexx.de/news/geowissen/am-kilimandscharo-kuehlen-sich-mittlere-hoehenlagen-trotz-des-klimawandels-ab)

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Source: RealTech, realtech.media — https://realtech.media/news/rt-dbaa804ed28545dac06aa9c0_kilimanjaro_air_temperature/