# Korea's National Institute of Forest Science develops pine wilt vector emergence and outbreak risk models

- Published: 2026-11-12 03:21 UTC
- Section: Planet › Ecology & recycling
- Tags: pine wilt disease, National Institute of Forest Science, vector emergence prediction, outbreak risk model, forest pest control, Korea Forest Service, surveillance and control, emergence outlook report
- URL: https://realtech.media/news/rt-a34294b51e6f48ac60661bf7_korea_s_national/

**The institute built a model of when the pine wilt vector emerges as an adult and a grid-based outbreak risk model, so surveillance and control can be timed and prioritised.**

![Korea's National Institute of Forest Science develops pine wilt vector emergence and outbreak risk models](https://realtech.media/media/2026/11/57a9ec08b80dc851.jpg)
*Hasegawa Tōhaku, Wikimedia Commons, Public domain*

The National Institute of Forest Science, part of the Korea Forest Service, has developed two models for pine wilt disease control. One predicts when the insect vector emerges as an adult; the other assesses outbreak risk by area. The institute announced it on the 11th, biz.heraldcorp.com reports. [1]

Pine wilt disease spreads as the vector insect carries the nematode from tree to tree. For this reason, removing sources of infection, such as trees that have died from the disease, before the vector emerges is the core of control. [1]

## Emergence timing model

The emergence model combines the biological traits of the vector, regional weather data and the characteristics of disease outbreaks. Based on the expected temperature in each region, it predicts when the vector becomes an adult. [1]

On this basis, field teams can adjust the schedule for removing dead trees, spraying chemicals and installing attractant traps. [1]

## Outbreak risk model

The risk model divides the whole country into grid cells of 100 m × 100 m. It evaluates outbreak risk in detail from 58 variables, including outbreak density, host tree distribution, a weather index for the vector's active period from April to August, and population density near affected sites. [1]

The institute uses the results to prepare an emergence outlook report. It distributes the report to local governments and related agencies to support planning of control strategies. [1]

Han Hye-rim of the institute's Forest Pests and Diseases Research Division said the prediction accuracy of the risk model will be verified continuously against yearly damage data. According to her, damage data will be updated every year, and risk maps produced and distributed, to support national and regional surveillance and control strategies. [1]

## Sources

1. [biz.heraldcorp.com](https://biz.heraldcorp.com/article/10933888)

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Source: RealTech, realtech.media — https://realtech.media/news/rt-a34294b51e6f48ac60661bf7_korea_s_national/