# Cambridge and Hong Kong teams release open-source toolkit modelling heatwave strain on European grids

- Published: 2026-11-15 04:20 UTC
- Section: Power & Energy › Energy
- Tags: heatwave power grid, European electricity supply, load shedding, HEAT-Analysis toolkit, open-source grid model, transmission line capacity, Cambridge energy research, grid resilience
- URL: https://realtech.media/news/rt-80a5a6ab649f37991dcae294_cambridge_and_hong/

**Simulations of eight European countries show France, Spain and Italy facing the highest risk of supply bottlenecks and load shedding during heatwaves, the authors report.**

![Cambridge and Hong Kong teams release open-source toolkit modelling heatwave strain on European grids](https://realtech.media/media/2026/11/1248c599b3575f09.webp)
*scinexx*

Researchers from the University of Cambridge, City University of Hong Kong and The Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) have modelled how heatwaves affect the generation and delivery of electricity in Western Europe. According to cam.ac.uk, the results appear in Nature Energy, and the team has released what it calls the first open-source toolkit for grid operators to assess heat-related vulnerabilities [1]. The study draws on the heatwaves of 2019, 2022 and 2024 and covers Spain, Portugal, France, Italy, Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and the UK [1].

## How heat strains supply and lines

Heatwaves raise demand for cooling and push up electricity consumption. At the same time supply falls: solar panels lose efficiency, and conventional and nuclear plants reduce output to avoid overheating [1]. The high-pressure patterns that bring heat often bring low winds, so wind farms also produce less [1]. Power lines must be derated to stay within their heat limits, and they are more likely to fail as they sag [1].

Together these effects can cause supply bottlenecks and load shedding, meaning intentional power cuts to reduce demand [1]. The authors say conventional models capture only parts of this picture and at a high computational cost, so they developed their own algorithms with a lower computational burden. Lead author Enming Liang said that combining demand growth, lower generator capacity and lower transmission capacity reveals hidden bottleneck regions that existing methods cannot find [1].

## Results, assumptions and the toolkit

In the simulations, France, Spain and Italy faced a greater risk of supply bottlenecks and load shedding [1]. Germany and the UK stayed comparatively resilient, although their risk of failure also rises as heatwaves intensify and demand peaks [1]. In the scinexx account, the modelled unserved demand in France averaged 0.45 percent, and on some of the hottest line segments in Spain transmission capacity fell to nearly half of its rated value.

The findings assume only a conservative annual increase in demand over the next five years and do not include the growth in datacentre construction. They also assume that existing storage is fully charged when a heatwave begins. Even so, co-corresponding author Minghua Chen said, existing storage is not enough to prevent load shedding [1]. Help from neighbouring countries works in some cases but is not always reliable, since it depends on spare capacity and sufficient transmission links [1].

The authors recommend building storage near high-demand locations, upgrading lines to carry more power at higher temperatures, and applying a cooling, reflective coating to power lines [1]. Their data sets, algorithms and source code are available as the downloadable HEAT-Analysis toolkit: operators enter proprietary infrastructure data and test solutions [1]. The authors note limitations, including uncertainty in climate and demand projections and the limited resolution of public grid data [1].

## Sources

1. [cam.ac.uk](https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/heatwaves-are-threatening-europes-power-supplies-researchers-warn)
2. [scinexx](https://www.scinexx.de/news/energie/hitzewellen-gefaehrden-europas-stromversorgung)

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Source: RealTech, realtech.media — https://realtech.media/news/rt-80a5a6ab649f37991dcae294_cambridge_and_hong/