# Forecast: ten Southern African countries unlikely to reach 2030 child mortality target

- Published: 2026-11-12 10:54 UTC
- Section: Life & Health › Medicine
- Tags: under-five mortality, SDG target 3.2, Southern African Development Community, time series forecasting, ARIMA Prophet hybrid model, World Bank data, Malawi, child survival monitoring
- URL: https://realtech.media/news/rt-4a35fa13a61783230a69ae33_forecast_ten_southern/

**A modelling study of World Bank data for 1990–2023 found no SADC country likely to reach under-five mortality below 25 per 1,000 live births by 2030. Malawi is highest at 54%.**

![Forecast: ten Southern African countries unlikely to reach 2030 child mortality target](https://realtech.media/media/2026/11/f7eb980984d4a9e5.jpg)
*USAID Africa Bureau, Wikimedia Commons, Public domain*

Researchers Welcome J. Dlamini and Thabo Lephoto forecast under-five mortality for ten Southern African Development Community countries and estimated the probability that each will reach Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.2 by 2030. The work was published in BMC Public Health in 2026. The target is fewer than 25 under-five deaths per 1,000 live births. According to the authors, no country met the predefined probability threshold for classification as likely to achieve the target under current mortality trajectories [1].

## Data and methods

The analysis used annual under-five mortality data from the World Bank for 1990–2023. The authors applied three time series approaches: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Prophet, and a hybrid ARIMA–Prophet model [1].

Forecast accuracy was assessed with an 80/20 training-testing split, using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The study also introduces a probabilistic forecasting framework. From the forecast distributions, the authors determined the likelihood that each country would reach the SDG threshold by 2030 [1].

## Results for the region

Under-five mortality declined substantially in all ten countries, particularly after 2000. The authors report, however, that recent progress has slowed. Since 1990, Southern Africa has contributed significantly to regional reductions, but it was unclear whether the current pace matches the path needed to meet the goal [1].

Malawi had the highest estimated probability of reaching the target, 54%. Under the study's predefined probability thresholds it was still classified as at risk. Across the region, projected 2030 mortality rates remain well above 25 deaths per 1,000 live births in most countries [1].

The authors conclude that, on current trajectories, Southern African countries are unlikely to achieve SDG target 3.2 by 2030 without enhanced child health interventions. They also note that probabilistic forecasting offers a transparent framework for strengthening child survival monitoring and policy planning [1].

The figures are model projections of existing trends rather than observed outcomes. They depend on the World Bank series and on the thresholds the authors set for classifying countries.

## Sources

1. [BMC Public Health](https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-026-30212-3)
2. [bioengineer.org](https://bioengineer.org/southern-african-nations-unlikely-to-meet-2030-child-mortality-target)

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Source: RealTech, realtech.media — https://realtech.media/news/rt-4a35fa13a61783230a69ae33_forecast_ten_southern/